China's diesel exports worldwide may decline due to low stocks
November shipments may drop to approximately 800,000 tonnes
Chinese oil refiners have already sold around 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel for November loading, but deals for the second half of the month have not yet been finalised. According to Reuters estimates and market participants, the final export volume may reach approximately 800,000 tonnes—compared to 1.33 million tonnes in August and 1.8 million tonnes in September.
The dynamics of shipments depend on government decisions and the state of the domestic market. After reducing exports from April to July, China lifted the existing restrictions in mid-July, and overseas shipments recovered in August. In September, they also remained high, but in October, exports initially declined due to the week-long national holidays before resuming.
Last week, China expanded the quota for oil product exports: the available volume for the fourth quarter amounted to 20.44 million tonnes. Analysts at GL Consulting warned that the additional quota itself does not guarantee an immediate increase in physical shipments. After the quota is distributed, the November plan may be revised upwards, but its parameters are still being adjusted.
