International Energy Agency warns of prolonged global crisis
The diesel shortage will persist until mid-2027, but this will push everyone to switch to nuclear power and electricity sooner
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that the crisis in the Middle East had finally destroyed the previous model of the energy market: a return of oil, gas and fuel prices to the level they were at before the conflict began will be impossible even in 2027. High prices ($120 per barrel) are already hitting the economies of developing countries, while the continuing shortage will force the world to accelerate its transition to nuclear power and electric transport.
“I fear that I do not see a single realistic scenario in which the markets next year will be able to return to the state they were in before this war began. Today, trust has become the main and scarcest resource in energy markets,” he stressed.
Global oil prices are approaching the $120-per-barrel mark, while the cost of petroleum products is rising even faster. While such prices remain relatively tolerable for European countries, for most regions of the world — especially in Asia — they are dealing a severe blow to state budgets and causing a sharp increase in trade-balance deficits.
According to the IEA’s October report, the current shortage in the diesel fuel and gasoil market will last at least until the middle of next year. Morgan Stanley analysts confirm this forecast, noting that in the second quarter of 2027, global refineries will face an abnormally high volume of scheduled maintenance, which was massively postponed from the current year.
The IEA executive director is convinced that the shock that has developed will fundamentally change the structure of global energy consumption. The need to strengthen energy security will force governments to accelerate the transition to the “era of electricity” and stimulate a large-scale expansion of nuclear power capacity.
